Thursday, January 13, 2005

2005's Fights to Look Forward to - Battle of the Bloggers

Nothing attracts a crowd more than a good fight, in the spirit of this and my current favourite movie of all time (& soon to be 2005 Oscar winner) 'Million Dollar Baby', we introduce the first in a series of blog posts dedicated to the ancient art of fighting like a savage.

Jordan Carter vs. DP Farrar
Wellington Central General Electorate Seat

This is the battle NZ political bloggers are waiting for, the young spritely Jordan versus the salty battle hardened DP Farrar. As campaign managers for incumbent Marian Hobbs and former Wellington mayor Mark Blumsky, this looks to be a knockdown, drag out bar fight which will leave one man's pride bloodied and bruised on the floor of the NZ blog tavern. Despite representing the incumbent Hobbs, Jordan faces a tougher fight to protect his manhood than he would admit to. Blumsky is a popular figure in an affluent electorate that has elected the first (and probably last) ACT MP to ever win a constituency seat. Marion Hobbs, while a competent minister has a poor public image and cannot compete with Blumsky as a public speaker. A percieved weakness of Blumsky is that he was formerly president of United Future, but only voters who would never support a National candidate would view that as a negative. The voters of Peter Dunne's electorate in Ohariu-Belmont don't seem to have a problem with him being the leader of United Future as proven by his 12000 vote majority. Also, as roughly 30-35% of Labour list voters in Ohariu-Belmont voted for the United Future candidate to represent them, I don't think the 'great unwashed' view United Future as the bogeyman some of the left would like them to be. Granted, if Wellington Central was being fought under First Past the Post, Hobbs would win by around 6-9000 votes. As it is, looking at the 2002 results for Wellington Central, Hobbs only got 1238 more electorate votes than her own party's list vote, whereas the National Candidate Hekia Parata improved over her party's list vote by 3329. There's no argument Blumsky is a far stronger candidate than Parata, and with the trend of increased vote-splitting likely to continue in 2005 I pick Blumsky by 4000+. Of course Hobbs will remain in parliament as she should be around number 12-14 on the Labour list.

Projected TAB Odds
Blumsky $1.30
Hobbs $2.10

22 comments:

Jules van Cruysen said...

I'm actualy a 'Party Hack'... Labour

Aucklander At Large said...

Only you'd admit to that Jules.

Greg Stephens said...

I think most of the blogs could be described as Party Hacks, but I'm fine with being called a Communist, it is better than being called a fascist!

Uroskin said...

I'm happy not being in any of those categories (and their rigidity point to a curious Bush/Stalin/Canterbury rugby one eyed look at the world: either you're with us or your agin us)

Gaz said...

I'm quite happy in the Fascist category, though I'd prefer to be filed under wankers!
Also, Hekia Parata is not a his, she is a her. This far out I would tend to agree with your odds, are you going to take wagers?

STC said...

Apparently I don't rate a mention...

Or people don't think I'm political :)

Anonymous said...

Hobbs is a nice lady who was damn lucky not to get into further trouble when she fiddled her accomodation allowances. Apparently her political skill in handling that problem earned her points. However the Labour list will be a crowded place when all those Maori MPs seeking high lost slots. Do not like Maid Marion's chances.

Anonymous said...

Why is there no link from this page to the main page of this blog?

Greg Stephens said...

Labour is ready to fight. Ironic isn't it that Labour, who fights for the underdog, has to fight as the underdog? No? well ok then.

GO MARIAN HOBBS

Anonymous said...

Greg if you are so dim as to not realise that Communisim and Facisism are the same thing with minior differences in admin then its no wonder you ran crying from Rodneys site when the acid came on you to justiy your claims you big sook!

Anonymous said...

Labour fights to keep the under dog the under dog! Like drug dealers keeping their junkies hooked to ensure repeat business so Labour will do and promise anything to keep the miserable,dependants its polices create coming back to the "dealer at election time.They soon learn which side the benefits are buttered on!

Idiot/Savant said...

Hmph. I'm not any sort of party hack. As for communists and fascists, I think its a nice way to lay out a blogroll, and makes it clear where everyone stands.

Anonymous said...

Didn't Hekia Parata stand in Wellington Central in 2002, not 1999? I didn't think National stood a candidate against Prebble in 1999...

Is it not possible to post a comment with your details without having to sign up for a Blogger account, which I don't want to do? Annoying!

Anyway, go Blumsky!

Anonymous said...

Yea it was 2002, not 99, just a typo. 

Posted by Manu

Anonymous said...

indeed National did not stand a Welly Central candidate in 1999. But then who would have gone for selection after what happened to Mark Thomas in 1996?

ta muchly for the link  

Posted by span(ner in the works)

Anonymous said...

The right last won this seat none years ago when the right vote was consolidated, there was no incumbent, and Labour scraped together 28% support across the country.

I don't know about the chances of ACT stepping aside, but Marian is a two term incumbent and the brute maths of it are that many votes for her will simply flow from the 40%+ Party vote Labour should achieve. She should win. 

Posted by michael wood

Anonymous said...

I think it will be a close battle, and if anyone can beat Marion, it is Blumsky, but I still envision Marion pulling through in a tight battle.

As for my thoughts on the blogroll, I'm nowhere near a communist, but I find it highly amusing - to anyone who has an issue with it, I prescribe a sense of humour. 

Posted by Asher

Anonymous said...

At last, the Kiwi blogosphere has been denounced as the dirty, inbred clique that it is. The classifications are particulaly apt - my cloth cap is off to you.

I'm just surprised that as an advocate for workers' rights, I'm not there under Communists? 

Posted by Mellie

Anonymous said...

:) 

Posted by Mellie

Anonymous said...

Mark Blumsky or Marion Hobbs?! You're kidding, right? Someone who thinks the sun rises from his fundament or the dimmest bulb to make the Ministry since Ben Couch?! Neither that smarmy shill nor that dithering old dear in her dotage "represent" me nor anyone I left behind in Wellington when escaping Comrade Helen's socialist utopia. And to think I'd considered returning... Mark Blumsky or Marion Hobbs?! You ARE kidding, right?! 

Posted by ex-Wellingtonian

Anonymous said...

I'm looking forward to the campaign, and I think Marian will win. Best thing is, us bloggers don't decide the result :)

Nice new blog guys, I've finally remembered to add you to my list. 

Posted by Jordan

Anonymous said...

"...while a competent Minister" - since when? She couldn't even handle Broadcasting! I've always found it offensive that she's in charge of Environment - shows where Labour's priorities lie... 

Posted by DC